Dubai Office Market Doubles; Regulators Eye Cooling Trend in H1 2026

Dubai Office Market Doubles; Regulators Eye Cooling Trend in H1 2026

Dubai's office market cools after explosive first-quarter surge driven by off-plan purchases.

AED15.8 billion in office sales during the first half of 2026 tells only part of Dubai’s commercial real estate story. The fuller picture, drawn from analysis by Cavendish Maxwell, a real estate advisory firm operating across the Middle East, shows a market that surged dramatically year-on-year before showing clear signs of cooling within the same six-month window.

The headline figure represents nearly double the transaction value recorded in the second half of 2025 and a year-on-year increase of almost 200%. Deal volume followed a similar trajectory, with the number of office transactions climbing more than 38% compared to the first half of 2025 to reach 2,600 sales. Off-plan properties drove that growth, accounting for 65% of all deals and commanding substantially higher average prices than ready stock.

Off-plan office purchases averaged AED8.3 million in H1 2026, a 133% increase from the AED3.5 million average recorded a year earlier. Ready offices, by contrast, saw more modest appreciation, rising nearly 14% to AED3 million from AED2.6 million. The gap between those two figures reflects a pronounced market shift toward new development projects over existing inventory.

High-value transactions were a primary engine of the overall surge. More than 220 office purchases exceeded AED20 million in the first six months of 2026, a striking jump from just 20 such deals in each half-year period of 2025. Ninety-five percent of those premium transactions involved off-plan properties, underscoring investor appetite for new developments at the upper end of the market.

What changed: momentum slowed sharply as the year progressed. The second quarter recorded almost 36% fewer transactions than the first, accompanied by slight moderation in both sales prices and rental rates. This quarterly softening primarily affected the ready office segment, reflecting a combination of seasonal factors and regional uncertainty that prompted some investors to adopt more cautious purchasing strategies.

Business Bay led all locations for office sales in H1 2026, recording 814 combined transactions across off-plan and ready categories. That represented a shift from Q1, when Al Sufouh 1 held the top position with 498 sales. Jumeirah Lakes Towers, Dubai Maritime City, and Barsha Heights rounded out the five most active locations, collectively accounting for more than 70% of all transactions.

Rental market conditions strengthened year-on-year despite the quarterly softening. Average office rental rates reached AED189 per square foot per annum in H1 2026, a 14% increase from the prior year. Downtown Dubai, Barsha Heights, and DIFC posted the strongest rent growth, each recording increases exceeding 17%. Sales prices climbed 15% year-on-year to an average of AED2,012 per square foot, though quarterly comparisons showed slight declines from Q1 to Q2.

Buyer preferences revealed distinct patterns between segments. Off-plan purchasers showed balanced demand across size categories, with half of all off-plan transactions involving units smaller than 1,000 square feet while others pursued larger premises above 2,000 square feet. The ready market demonstrated stronger concentration, with offices between 1,000 and 2,000 square feet accounting for 53% of sales.

New supply continued entering the market. Approximately 92,300 square metres of office space was delivered in H1 2026, bringing Dubai’s total office inventory to 9.46 million square metres. The pipeline remains substantial: 150,000 square metres are scheduled for completion by year-end 2026, 379,000 square metres are planned for 2027, and 718,000 square metres are targeted for 2028, pushing total inventory toward 10.7 million square metres when those projects materialize.

Despite that pipeline, Cavendish Maxwell anticipates office supply will remain constrained through the remainder of 2026. Historical construction patterns suggest delays will likely defer portions of planned supply, with near-term projects in advanced construction stages potentially more resilient to disruption than early-stage developments.

Vidhi Shah, Director and Head of Commercial Valuation at Cavendish Maxwell, cautioned that while year-on-year indicators remained positive, quarterly trends signal moderating momentum. The firm noted that Dubai’s structural market foundations, including its diversified economy, strategic geographic position, and pro-business regulatory environment, remain sound. Whether those foundations hold against geopolitical headwinds, the pace of supply delivery, and the strength of occupier demand in the second half of 2026 is the question the market has not yet answered.

Q&A

What regulatory and market conditions does Cavendish Maxwell identify as foundational to Dubai's office market stability?

Cavendish Maxwell notes Dubai's diversified economy, strategic geographic position, and pro-business regulatory environment as structural market foundations, though geopolitical headwinds, supply delivery pace, and occupier demand strength in H2 2026 remain open questions.

How did off-plan and ready office prices diverge in H1 2026 compared to the prior year?

Off-plan office purchases averaged AED8.3 million in H1 2026, a 133% increase from AED3.5 million a year earlier, while ready offices rose more modestly to AED3 million from AED2.6 million, a 14% increase.

What quarterly trend prompted market analysts to signal moderating momentum despite positive year-on-year indicators?

Q2 recorded almost 36% fewer transactions than Q1, accompanied by slight moderation in sales prices and rental rates, primarily affecting the ready office segment and reflecting seasonal factors and regional uncertainty.

What is the projected office inventory timeline and total capacity when planned developments complete?

Approximately 92,300 square metres was delivered in H1 2026, bringing total inventory to 9.46 million square metres. With 150,000 square metres scheduled for 2026, 379,000 for 2027, and 718,000 for 2028, total inventory will reach approximately 10.7 million square metres.